Since the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, India has faced continuous pressure from the West to abandon its Russia-leaning neutrality. The West hoped India would align itself with Ukraine, particularly given New Delhi's increasing involvement in the Quad. The United States, in particular, has expressed clear disappointment over the Indian Prime Minister's visit to Moscow, especially as it coincided with NATO meetings in Washington that were focused primarily on defense cooperation. While every country should have the freedom to make its own choices, all must recognize and respect these sovereign decisions. The emphasis on upholding international law and adhering to the UN Charter is paramount, as it dictates that all states must avoid threats or using force against another nation's territorial integrity, sovereignty, or political independence. Ignoring these principles undermines global stability and sets a dangerous precedent that jeopardizes international peace and security.
Every country's aim has been multi-alignment, which involves partnering with different allies at various times to maximize their advantages. Naturally, New Delhi is not indifferent to this strategy. Annual summits help maintain long-standing ties between New Delhi and Moscow. Defense and energy are key parts of their partnership, but the relationship is weakening. A stronger India is now turning more to the West for technology and investments.
Meanwhile, Russia is getting closer to China, India's strategic rival, especially after tensions with the West increased following Crimea's annexation in 2014. Russia's growing closeness with China is a concern for India, especially because India is currently in a tense standoff with China over their border. The "friendship without limits" relationship between Russia and China is troubling for India. It affects India's strategic plans, making it crucial for India to carefully manage this complex geopolitical situation. A significant concern for New Delhi has been Russia sharing sensitive technology with China or going slow on the supply of spare parts during a conflict with Pakistan or China. Russia is one of India's biggest defense suppliers. This defense cooperation means India has to be very careful in its relationship with Russia Following Putin's recent visit to North Korea, a mutual defense agreement has been reached. Since India has consistently expressed concerns regarding defense cooperation between Pakistan and North Korea, this might cause some discomfort in New Delhi.
In the wake of the conflict in Ukraine, the cooperation between Russia and Western countries has ceased. It is evident that Russian policy is being 'Easternized', in which countries like India play an important role. India wants to compete against China in the Arctic. India values Russia's Arctic presence for its extensive coastline, population, and resources, viewing the region as key to future ties. Russia, as the northernmost country, represents the Global North, while India represents the Global South, offering significant potential for Arctic cooperation. The Russian logistics pact gives India access to Russian Arctic naval facilities, crucial for new shipping routes and increased investments in Russia's eastern regions. During the Prime Minister's visit, discussions included the delay in defense supplies and the exploration of more co-production opportunities. Initiatives such as the India-Russia joint venture for assault rifles were considered essential to strengthen India's defense capabilities, particularly to deter China.
India, the world's largest democracy, has faced criticism from Ukraine for its engagement with Russia, a country currently viewed as a global pariah due to its actions. India has been strengthening its ties with the United States, particularly in the realms of defense, trade, and technology, driven by mutual concerns over China's growing influence in the region. As a result, India is under pressure to reconsider and possibly distance itself from its longstanding relationship with Moscow.
India's great power calculations create a tense dilemma, forcing a choice between a "comprehensive global strategic partnership" with the US and its "special and privileged partnership" with Russia. India wants to maintain its independent stance and not be seen as a junior partner to the West. One way to do this is by reminding the West of its alternative ally, Russia. India may believe that the West needs it more than it needs the West, giving India confidence that it will receive some level of support from the West regardless of its stance.
From India's perspective, maintaining a neutral position that leans towards Russia is seen as the best way to protect its interests, including its relationship with China. The conflict in Ukraine has shown that Western military aid and economic pressure can significantly impact outcomes. However, if India finds itself in a conflict with China, it's uncertain if the West would provide the same level of support as it did for Ukraine. Therefore, maintaining friendly relations with Russia while keeping some distance from the West might be a strategic approach for India. This could help India navigate its relationship with China and ensure it has options in case of a conflict. India wants to assure its citizens that it can manage military operations effectively, even during wartime. India may also believe that joint statements with the US framing the border crisis in terms of US-China competition could be seen as unhelpful. As India emerges as a more confident power, its officials prefer to avoid appearing dependent on Washington for managing the border dispute with China.
Additionally, there is a concern about Pakistan potentially opening a second front or taking actions short of war during an India-China standoff. India is carefully considering what it may need from the US and what Washington can offer in terms of support, particularly given the ongoing conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine, as well as Hamas and Israel.
