The Narendra Modi administration has unveiled a significant link between the proposed bill advocating for a 33% reservation for women, introduced in the Lok Sabha on Tuesday, and the forthcoming delimitation of constituencies based on the next census. However, since the 2021 census has yet to take place, it is likely to be conducted only after the Lok Sabha elections.
This linkage to delimitation, the process of redrawing constituency boundaries, has raised suspicions among opposition parties that the government has a dual agenda: firstly, an attempt to sow discord within the opposition camp on both women's reservation and population-based delimitation, and secondly, to circumvent the constitutional restrictions on population-based delimitation by leveraging sympathy for the women's reservation bill if they return to power in 2024.
A BJP Lok Sabha MP, who preferred to remain anonymous as he was not authorized to speak on the matter, stated, "The aim of linking implementation with delimitation is to increase the number of seats available for women."
If this argument mirrors the party's stance, it implies that either the pending census will have to wait until 2027 for the benefits to materialize in 2029, or the benefits will be based on the 2031 census.
However, Congress and other opposition parties contend that even in the 2029 elections, the implementation may not be feasible due to the several years required for the delimitation exercise following the publication of census data.
The bill specifies that the provision "shall come into effect after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken for this purpose after the relevant figures for the first census taken after the commencement of the Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty-eighth Amendment) Act, 2023, have been published."
Nevertheless, there is a restriction on reallocating Lok Sabha and state assembly seats based on the latest population census. According to Article 170(3) of the Indian Constitution, the allocation of Lok Sabha seats to each state and the total strength of their legislative assemblies cannot be altered until the results of the first census conducted after 2026. This provision was put in place to ensure that states that effectively managed their population growth were not disadvantaged with a reduced share of parliamentary representation.
Therefore, if the pending census is conducted before 2026, it should not serve as the basis for reallocating parliamentary seats and state assembly strength.
Population-based delimitation itself is a contentious issue, leading to the imposition of an embargo in the first place. The restriction on redrawing Lok Sabha boundaries, initially imposed during Indira Gandhi's rule in 1976, was reinstated in 2001 during Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government.
Economist and political activist Prasenjit Bose pointed out that the nationwide delimitation exercise following the census would take several more years, adding, "It is also bound to be controversial because of the apprehensions among several states that they would lose their proportional share of total parliamentary seats due to their success in controlling population growth."
The Congress has labeled the bill a "colossal betrayal" that "shatters the hopes of millions of Indian women and girls."
As population trends over the past four decades indicate, northern and central Indian states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar stand to gain significantly in terms of seats in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, while southern and eastern states, particularly Tamil Nadu and Kerala, are likely to see their seat share decline. This is why southern states are resistant to population-based delimitation, with leaders of Tamil Nadu's Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the CPI(M) in Kerala expressing their objections.
However, a senior leader of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) suggested that Uttar Pradesh's Samajwadi Party (SP), a member of the INDIA alliance, might find it challenging to oppose population-based delimitation.
Despite the Modi government's expectations that the bill would sow discord among the opposition, there was no such indication as of Tuesday night. Leaders from Delhi and Punjab's ruling party, the Aam Aadmi Party, criticized the bill for its delayed implementation without delving into debates around population-linked delimitation.
Senior TMC leader and West Bengal women and child development minister Shashi Panja expressed disappointment, stating that the bill turned out to be "just another election gimmick" due to the complexities surrounding its implementation and the resulting years of delay.
Party leaders emphasized their commitment to women's representation, citing their achievements in the three-tier panchayat system and women candidates in elections, questioning the BJP's intent in this regard.
Lok Sabha MPs Mahua Moitra and Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar were scheduled to elucidate the party's position in Parliament on Wednesday.
The response of the parties comprising the INDIA alliance remains to be seen.
