India seems to be facing another challenge in its neighborhood with the election results of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a pro-China leader who many outside the region had not heard before. His rise to power, bringing the Marxist-Leninist party from the fringes into mainstream governance in Sri Lanka, was unexpected. Dissanayake, known for his pro-China stance, made headlines in India a few months ago when he spoke about canceling Gautam Adani’s 450 MW wind power project in Sri Lanka, calling the agreement "corrupt" and claiming it was skewed against Sri Lankan interests.
In its early years, the JVP was very critical of India's influence, seeing it as expansionist and interfering in Sri Lanka's internal affairs. Historically, the JVP had a strong hostility toward India, with its founder, Rohana Wijeweera, calling for the boycott of Indian products. Wijeweera saw India as a dominating state trying to undermine Sri Lanka's national interests during its post-colonial development. The JVP also disliked Indian cinema, music, and cultural influences that promoted India's dominance in the region. Now that the JVP has gained more power, it’s important to see how these old attitudes toward India will affect the current situation, especially since Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the current leader, is considered "pro-China" and wary of Indian interests in Sri Lanka. The question is whether he will stick to Wijeweera's anti-India ideology or take a more balanced approach in today’s geopolitical climate.
Interestingly, after a recent visit to India, Dissanayake expressed gratitude for India’s role in helping Sri Lanka during the 2022 economic crisis, acknowledging the country's reliance on Indian medicines and food aid during that difficult time. This raises the question of whether his criticism of the Adani wind power project in northern Sri Lanka is merely electoral rhetoric, especially since he has also criticized Chinese investments like the Hambantota Port. He may have stirred up anti-India sentiments and fueled nationalism to win votes during his campaign, but now that he's been elected, it’s important to closely monitor how he manages the situation going forward.
Sri Lanka's strategic location in the Indian Ocean has made it geopolitically significant to major global powers. India's focus on maintaining strong ties with Sri Lanka under its Neighbourhood First policy reflects the importance it places on this relationship. India is seriously worried about the Hambantota Port, which was leased to China for 99 years in exchange for $1.1 billion, and the increasing presence of Chinese naval vessels, including submarines and research ships, in Sri Lankan waters. These activities raise major security concerns for India, as it fears China could use Sri Lanka as a base to spy on Indian naval operations or disrupt important shipping routes. India hopes that Sri Lanka will take these concerns seriously and ensure that China's activities do not compromise India's security or the safety of its maritime operations in the region.
If his promises weren't just election talk, given his previous criticisms of China’s debt-driven projects and his pledge to renegotiate unfavorable agreements, Sri Lanka’s relationship with China under Dissanayake’s leadership may evolve into a more transactional and pragmatic one. Nevertheless, India can cautiously anticipate that Dissanayake’s foreign policy approach will likely focus on reducing Sri Lanka’s dependence on China while strengthening ties with regional partners like India. This strategy would reflect a balance between domestic political demands and broader regional priorities.
Dissanayake, having closely observed the Maldives-India tensions, is likely to adopt a calculated and cautious approach to balancing ties between India and China, given his experience as a seasoned politician. He has witnessed how China's heavy lending during the Rajapaksa era, funding controversial projects such as the Colombo Port City and Hambantota Port, worsened Sri Lanka’s debt crisis. In contrast, India has been a proactive partner in Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring efforts. The new government in Colombo now faces daunting challenges, from ongoing economic struggles to ethnic tensions, while also needing to navigate a delicate balance between two competing global powers. For Sri Lanka, deeper integration with India’s fast-growing economy presents valuable opportunities. As the world’s fastest-growing large economy, India has much more to offer Sri Lanka in the current landscape. His election victory brings both hope and challenges. Prime Minister Modi’s immediate outreach signals India’s intent to build on the $4 billion assistance package provided during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis focuses India is always on deepening cooperation in areas like infrastructure, energy, and trade, which underscores its strategic priorities.
India is likely to closely monitor whether the new Sri Lankan government takes steps to implement the 13th Amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution, which was intended to devolve power to the Tamil minority—an initiative New Delhi would strongly support, as it would ensure a life of dignity and respect for the Tamil community. India had previously engaged with the former president on this issue, emphasizing its importance. A balanced and stable Sri Lanka is crucial for New Delhi, as it contributes to regional peace and security. Any new tensions with its island neighbor would be highly detrimental, especially given India's challenges with uneven ties in Nepal and the Maldives and the loss of a key ally in Dhaka.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author are personal.
